Macedonian brands in the shadows: Potential waiting to be realized!
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Case Details
Title: Performance Analysis of TOP100 Companies (2009–2024)
Prepared by: Sergej Zafiroski, General Manager – Insider ID (Research & Consulting Agency)
Analysis Period: 2009–2024
Scope: Financial performance, revenue growth, profitability, productivity, and employment trends of TOP100 companies (members of the Chamber of Commerce of Northwest North Macedonia)
Methodology Note: Expenses are calculated as the difference between total revenue and net profit, including all operating costs, financial expenses, and taxes. The analysis is based on officially reported financial statements and standardized indicators to ensure consistency and comparability across years.
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Crises, Economic Measures, and the New Reality for Small Economies
The energy crisis and the war in Ukraine, and especially the health crisis of 2020/21, have brought new challenges that countries and economies have not previously faced. Measures that would have been a last resort before 2020 are now standard practice, such as price freezes, cash aid without coverage (to support production), various packages of measures to overcome crises, without interest, and the like. Instead of domestic companies and production facilities in times of crisis finding a way to restructure and increase sales, the main focus has been on measures implemented by countries. This is the case not only with the Macedonian economy, but also with most of the European ones. Although as an economist I believe that such practices and measures are unsustainable, primarily due to the large unproductive costs, this is the current environment to which companies need to adapt.
The Macedonian economy is very small, with a total GDP of $15.7 billion (according to the World Bank for 2023), with low competitive advantage, productivity and high import dependence. For comparison, the Macedonian GDP of $15 billion is 32 times smaller than the cash (cash on account) that “Berkshire Hathaway” currently has in 2025. Such a situation, on the one hand, is unfavorable, but on the other hand, it allows for flexibility that a large or developed economy cannot afford. It is positive that all production that the Macedonian economy can produce and meets standards can find a market in the EU or most of the world markets.
Potential, even on the domestic market for producers, is defined as existing. First, both consumers and producers believe that domestic brands are not sufficiently represented, but second, statistical data indicate a high import dependence for products and industries in which it is declared that we have a competitive advantage. Of course, some consumers will continue to prefer and buy imported brands that meet their expectations for taste and quality, but changing even a small part of that behavior will contribute to a significant increase in the market share of domestic companies.
The research conducted by Insider ID and EBRD in 2024 also included interviews with representatives from the FMCG industry, where some of the challenges were defined, which, among other things, are the main reasons why there is no significant development in the domestic FMCG industry.
What is the potential?
First, let’s look at some basic statistical data on the import and export of agricultural and food products, as they are one of the key FMCG categories, and are a clear indicator of the potential of the domestic market.
Imports and exports of agricultural and food products have been growing steadily since 2017. In fact, the value of food imports in 2024 is almost 1 billion euros, compared to 400 million in the same year. 600 million euros are “poured out” from the food item annually, which could potentially be partially replaced by domestic production. In the case of agricultural products, the results are more positive, where in 2024 there are 328 million euros in exports and 169 million euros in imports with a positive difference of 160 million euros. However, considering that one of the primary branches of the domestic economy is agriculture, there is an opportunity for further reduction in imports.
That is a potential of real 600 million euros, food products that companies import and sell on the domestic market. Certainly, some of that import will not be replaced, but increasing capacities and production will also enable increased exports to foreign markets, which will ultimately be positive for the economy.
It is noticeable that both agricultural and food products have experienced growth in imports and exports in the last 8 years. What is interesting is that the cumulative growth of imports and exports has identical values, for example, the growth of imports of agricultural products is 38%, but at the same time imports by 34%. The annual growth rate (CAGR) indicates significant growth in exports but also imports of both categories. The rate of 7% (in imports and exports) indicates that in one decade (10-year period) imports, i.e. exports, double. To make a positive difference in the long term, from one to two decades, even a difference of 2% (in exports) would have a significant role in creating a positive climate and reducing trade dependence.
Of course, additional analysis is needed for which specific products there is growth (or decline) in exports, in order to see whether the categories can be replaced by domestic production.
In addition to all the above, it should be borne in mind that domestic companies have unhindered access to the markets in the European Union and CEFTA, which from the point of view of the Macedonian economy are unlimited consumers of food and agricultural products. Consequently, in addition to satisfying domestic demand, companies have the opportunity and access to a large market. Ultimately, export growth rates should be significantly higher than what has been realized.
What are the main conclusions for increasing the competitiveness of domestic food producers?
The data indicate that companies cannot make a big leap in market capture. But what are the reasons behind such a situation? From the research, which is part of a project by the EBRD and Insider ID, a SWOT analysis was created, which detects the strengths and weaknesses of domestic food producers. What is generally noticeable is that digitalization, managerial capacities and innovation are the key aspects due to which the current potential is not being used.
The SWOT analysis for the consumer goods industry in North Macedonia shows an unbalanced development with clearly expressed potentials, but also serious structural weaknesses. Although there is product quality, a branding initiative and a certain degree of digitalization in some companies, weak process integration, low level of innovation, and limited access to marketing and research hinder full development.
On the opportunities side, the growing interest among consumers in domestic products is highlighted, as well as opportunities for digital integration, new sales channels (especially online), and demand for certain product categories. However, these potentials are limited by low purchasing power, weak digital connectivity throughout the supply chain, and price-based competition, which leads to cannibalization.
Definitely, taking into account the statistical data, companies have the potential to increase sales on the domestic and foreign markets. A real 500-600 million euros that Macedonian consumers can be part of “captured” by domestic producers. However, for the industry to seize the potential, coordinated efforts are needed to increase investment in innovation, digitalization, and marketing; increase productivity; and establish a stable value proposition for domestic brands. Policy support and strategic positioning are key to overcoming constraints and improving market competitiveness. Many of these proposals are under the direct control of companies, and changes can be introduced without the need for external support, but also stable institutional support.
Summery of key findings
